The Energy Challenge - Experience & Analysis

In This Article:

- Two Looks into the Energy Future: ex-DOE Under Secretary & Google.org

Raymond L. Orbach, the director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas is not an unknown figure in the field of Energy and Public Policy. Spending 40 years in research and administrative fields at the University of California system made him an ideal candidate to take on the in 2005 newly established position of Under Secretary of the DOE department of Science.


Analyzing the finalized budget, it is obvious that the Congress' support for R&D is sustained and did not suffer the feared strong cuts, so far the good news. Mr. Orbach was asked whether he sees the long-term goal of sustainable energy security conflicting with the more near-to-mid term challenges of a weak economy and national security. Interestingly, he does not see a conflict at all between these two goals and argues that we should use our technology R&D to 'green' fossil energies. 

This argument seems rather 'retro' in spirit   and would buy us some time at best. I think that delaying pure low-to-zero emission technologies will (i) slow down R&D efforts and SBIR momentum built up by the DOE, and (ii) not to help enable a 'green' industry and public awareness. In fact a recent Google.org study found that "Delaying Innovation = Delaying Benefits" (see left Figure). The full report can be freely downloaded here. The Google.org team's analysis found that if a clean energy breakthrough scenario would be delayed by only 5 years the accumulated economical loss from now until 2050 would be about $2.3-3.2 Trillion in unrealized GDP gains, which is an equivalent to about 1.3 million net jobs lost. Moreover, it would put 8-28 unnecessary gigatons of avoidable greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere. Going back to Mr. Orbach, one wonders how exactly he wants to avoid  the GHG emissions from the combustion of tar oil from Canadian sand, which he speaks so highly of?
    

The figure on the left summarizes the  Google.org team's findings painting a sunny outlook if energy innovation shall come through. In such a scenario the jobs will be created, the GDP raised, GHG emission spared, and energy security increased - all at the same time. 


Regarding PV Mr. Orbach and Google's report see a similar future; that is the  large-scale installation of PV at a cost effective way. Towards this aim the teaming of DOE's support (especially the Sun Shot and Sun Shot Incubator programs) and Google's close to $1 Billion dollar investments, many of which for PV, are good indicators that this goal can be reached.


However, the Ex-Legislator and Google's analysis seem to disagree on what technology can be defined as 'Clean Power' in the first place. While Orbach argues that radiation damage and gas storage should be improved alongside renewables the Mountain View company strictly considers PV, concentrated solar, wind, geothermal and retrofit carbon capture & sequestration (CSS) in their 'Clean Power Breakthrough' scenario.

Aligned are both parties again when it comes to implementations of future green power. Here Orbach sees that "good policy must be based on good science", and Google's analysis showed a clear correlation between the number of created jobs and GDP raise if  incentivizing policy legislations were added to the future scenario (see left Figure). 

In conclusion, it is foreseeable, that the global energy appetite is climbing and that we must address it. So, lets's be 'smart' and quick in the way we implement this energy revolution.