Energy Conference & Energy Future

In This Article:- Conference on Renewable Energies and what legistlators thing about science

Solar Power - we know the sun provides more energy every second than we need to power this planet with electricity if we'd installed solar panels. But even though much solar has and is being installed the wide spread adoption is still somewhat slow. Could added storage help? The idea is simple: peak solar production doe not coincide with peak electricity demand. Thus, when cost of electricity is highest you get the most $ for your solar energy. Thus the solution - store it for some few hours and release it during peak times.

The E2 conference next month in the Netherlands looks into these topics, and I shall contribute with a talk during thisconference. Here's a link to the topics discussed at that meeting.

Does Congress get a passing grade on Science?

 
The question is, how does the US congress views scientific topics like renewable energy and climate change? Scientific American recently asked 32 congressmen and women to respond to 8 selected science questions. The answeres are interesting and encouraging at once. Nine out of the 17 respondance acknowledged climate change which is uplifting. Other science related topics were brought up by the congressmen on the security of the internet, aka cybersecurity. This is a field that need much attention as communication and transaction pathways are virtually to 100% conducted via the web.

Continuing on this notion, and timely to the upcoming US elections, here is the link the respondance of "Top American Science Questions" from President Obama and Sen. Romney. Without going into too much detail the difference are quite obvious. The current administration did a tremendous effort in supporting science and engineering especially in the energy, water, and .... So how about economy? Well, Mitt Romneys biggest critique on the current administration is their apparent failure to grow the economy. The problem of many political leaders is that they sadly have a path for 4 years max, i.e. when elections are due. Obama however did plant seeds for a much bigger and larger project. He indeed presented a vision of a clean and US energy independent future. This forward thinking and long-term planning and preparing of the US polulation for the challenges of the 21st century is what makes true leaders stand out. And to the Mitt's economy point; 

• #1 when the Obama administration tool over the economy was down with 800,000 jobs lost every month from mis-leadership during the Bush years
• #2 the world saw the largest economical crises since the balck friday in 1929
• #3 the economy is already on a good way to recover
• #4 the long-term payoffs from stimmulation packets in Science, Engineering, clean energy, water, education WILL pay off in the mid-to long term - that's economics 101 

 In conclusion, the where we look sustainable energy sources like solar cells as discussed at the OSA E2 conference in Nov 2012, in the US congress, or at the economical growth plan of the Obama administration one thing is clear - the success and competitiveness of a country is and will be dominated by those who bet on scientific leadership.

In This Article:

- Greene cards for foreign graduates?! 

Stay or not to stay, that is here the question. The decision whether foreign students that earn highest degrees from US universities should use their degree to work in the states is a valid one. However, even for the highly needed STEM fields, that is science technology, engineering, and math, the path to a straight forward work place and permanent residency is currently quite cumbersome, time consuming and expensive; 12+ months waiting time, extensive application forms, in addition to attorney fees in the 5+ thousands are the norm. Well, a partisan bill was recently submitted to the congress by a Texan Congressmen, Mr. Lamar Smith (surprisingly from the Republican party).

55,000 Green cards for foreign Students

The idea: instead of offering a lottery to win 55,000 green cards every year, the proposal calls to give these cards to masters and PhD level foreign graduates. Would this be a good idea? Well, truth is, that STEM majors are rare all over the globe, not just the US. STEM majors are typically those who bring in high tax revenues since they have a decent salary. STEM majors are also those who are able to develop intellectual property (patents), and start new companies, especially in the IT sector. All in all, STEM majors are a strong engine for US’s technology infrastructure. Thus, it comes to no surprise that even republicans want to open doors for these highly talented graduates. We therefore find a strong argument to go ahead with the bill.

Coming back to the question whether this is a good idea, one can also argue against the bill, by highlighting diversity as one of the strengths of the states. In fact the green card lottery was instigated by a motivation to increase diversity. However, in a world with more and more challenges, faster innovation cycles, and a constant competition for experts the question is, whether we want to educate those smart men and women in these innovation critical majors, and then send them home afterwards. In this regard, Mr. Smith's proposal seems quite appealing and forward thinking.

In this article: Optics and your future

 

When we think about optics or photonics, many people intuitively think about some special applications, like projectors, lasers (shows), or maybe TV’s. It turns out, Photonics is part of your life in MULTIPLE ways every day, i.e. in your daily routine. Let me give you an example. Take your cell phone: starting from the inside out, it uses a processor uses smallest electronic elements called transistors which were made by optical lithography. Then of course there is a display, which features a lot of optical parts and components. Then let’s think about what you do with the phone. Well basically communicating or excessing data on the net. Those data get in and out of your handheld via RF signals which light is just a part of. But there is more, the entire backbone of todays’ internet is based on photonics, or fiber optics; here 100,000 billion bits of information float down a fiber every second – sounds a lot? Is a lot! Lastly, your nice an detailed handheld case is likely to be machined with the use of lasers as well. In short in every aspect of live optics is becoming more and more important. 

"The Future of modern IT technologies lies in Photonics"

Such potential of photonics has been recently recognized in a report entitled “ Optics & Photonics: Essential Technologies for Our Nation” released by the National Academy of Sciences’ (NAS) in Washington DC. In their keynote speeches Steven Chu, the U.S Secretary of Energy, and Craig Barrett, Founder and CEO of Intel, addressed the importance and potential of optics and photonics technologies to drive economic growth, create jobs, and enabling future innovations to advance society as a whole.

For instance, Chu highlighted solar cell technologies, which are coming down in price per watt electricity they produce. A long-time target was to get to 1$/W for solar cells, which we have already surpassed (current values are 0.86$/W). However, there is much more potential for solar cell deployment for sustainable energy sources. For example in the so called E2 conference held in November 11-14 in the Netherlands organized by the Optical Society of America (OSA), researchers and industrial leaders come together to discuss new device breakthroughts and system installation methods that make solar cells truly a mass product. Imagine, the efficiency of current solar cells to double, and with the trend of rising electricity costs, a pay-back time of your solar system of less than one year – after which there is an opportunity to actually make a profit using your system?

In the next posts we will be discussing interesting details about solar cells and optical breakthroughts of the.

  

In this article: Open government = the essence of democracy!?






Here a question:  Do we need more or less Government?

The answer is rather difficult. Arguments for Less gov influence are open markets, trade and innovation. Arguments for more gov regulative actions are a more fair system, better allocation of resources and more democracy. 

But what if both are 'wrong'? What if the answer is in a different direction, and could maybe sound like this: It's about engaging citizens and people living in a country and giving them an opportunity to care for their nation. This is important to balance the pure materialistic view of the world. Yes, we need markets, but we also need social, peoples energies as well. 

To this end it is interesting to observe the 'Open Government' directions the current administration is undertaking. The argument is to allow for and call upon more freedom for citizens, and not only for the U.S. but the all nations. 

It is a voluntary program where countries pledge to and demonstrate a willingness of open policies and transparency. These efforts of the 'free world' are good ones, and brings countries closer together, and is in sharp contrast to what Russia's new (old) is doing in his home garden. 

"Around the world, we're standing up for freedom to access information" (B. Obama 8-2012)

Now, so far so good. But more conservative and cautious minds could say, that such open governments are inherently information leaky-prone. Are they right? Well, hard to assess from the outside, however, let's just reaffirm that such open initiatives, talks and regulatory infrastructures are by no means an open door and information passage for any kind of confidential information. I would actually argue, that it is a no brainier that open structures are only implemented in areas where an open platform and discussion is appropriate. At the same time, the ongoing development and tremendous efforts in cyber-security are a good example that the US is tightening it's grip on information - which is a good thing.

The idea of open government is promising and could be an enabler for more joint collaborations and could bring a notion of reducing bureaucracy, and hence unnecessary deficit spendings. I agree with the President, that the idea of freedom around the world is tightly connected to information, and  let me add - education. Why? Because if humans dont know they start believing in ... whatever one tells them. Now if the person telling them is a dictator, they would still believe it, since they have no grounds to think otherwise. Imagine how many wars could be avoided if people started to actually used their 3.5 pound wobbly mass resting on top of their shoulders and start critically evaluating the information presented to them?

All in all, the direction of 'open government' is a trend worth pursuing towards more integrity, freedom, and democracy on this planet. 

In This Article:
- A snapshot of a recent report on the shift of economic value of Solar energy at high grid penetration 

Is more always better? And if not, why?

The questions is: when a lot of the population uses solar, how do economical values of such renewable energies change?

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory recently released a new report: “Changes in the Economic Value of Variable Generation at High Penetration Levels: A Pilot Case Study of California.” In this report, we evaluate how a subset of the benefits and costs of variable renewable generation changes with increasing penetrations on the electric grid.

And surprise surprise without energy storage options, high solar adoption will have adverse effects: that is, increasing solar penetration shifts peak residual demand into low sun hours.

Here is a presentation of the report:

http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/lbnl-5445e-ppt.pdf 

Comments from the authors:
We use a unique investment and dispatch model that simulates long-run investment decisions while also incorporating detailed operational constraints and hourly time resolution over a full year.  The model is applied to a case study that is loosely based on California in 2030. Increasing amounts of wind, single-axis tracking photovoltaics (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) with and without thermal energy storage (TES) are each added in isolation.  For each technology and penetration level, the marginal economic value of the variable renewable generation resource is calculated and decomposed into capacity value, energy value, day-ahead forecast error cost, and ancillary services costs.  This marginal economic value at each penetration level represents the change in benefits for a small change in the amount of variable renewable generation at that penetration level, as opposed to the average economic value of all variable generation up to that penetration level.

Important to note is that the analysis focuses on a subset of the benefits and costs of variable renewable generation.  The benefits examined include the avoided capital investment, fuel, and operations and maintenance costs of other (fossil-fuel-based) power plants.  The model calculates these avoided costs while accounting for operational constraints on conventional generators and the increased need for ancillary services with higher penetrations of variable renewable generation.  The analysis, however, does not consider other costs and benefits that may be important, including: the capital cost of building the variable renewable generation, environmental impacts, transmission and distribution costs or benefits, effects related to the lumpiness and irreversibility of investment decisions, and uncertainty in future fuel and capital investment costs.  Notwithstanding these limitations, the analysis conducted here provides important insights that can inform long-term decisions about renewable procurement and supporting infrastructure.

The primary findings of the analysis are as follows.  The marginal economic value of all three solar options (PV, CSP without TES, and CSP with TES) is relatively high at low penetration levels, exceeding both the value of a flat-block of power and the marginal value of wind energy, largely due to the high capacity value of solar at low penetrations. The value of PV and CSP without TES, however, drops considerably as penetration increases toward 30% on an energy basis -- initially due to a decline in capacity value (as increasing solar penetration shifts peak residual demand into low sun hours), followed by a decrease in energy value.  In contrast, the value of CSP with TES drops much less as penetration increases. As a result, at solar penetration levels above 10% of total energy generation, the CSP with TES is found to be considerably more valuable relative to PV and CSP without TES. The value of wind is largely driven by energy value and is lower than solar at low penetration. The value of wind is found to drop with increasing penetration, but at a slower rate than the drop in value of PV and CSP without thermal storage. Hence, at high penetration, the value of wind can exceed the value of PV and CSP without thermal storage.

Though some of these results may be somewhat unique to the specific case study examined here, and the model only captures a subset of the benefits and costs of renewable energy, the findings nevertheless provide unique insight into how the value of variable renewable generation changes with technology and penetration level. The findings also show the importance of an analysis framework that accounts for long-term investment decisions as well as short-term dispatch and operational constraints, and point to areas where future research is warranted.  As one example, a forthcoming LBNL report will examine the impact of several ‘mitigation strategies' that may help to stem the decline in the economic value of variable renewable generation at high penetration.  These mitigation strategies include technological diversity, where multiple variable renewable generation technologies are added to the system simultaneously as opposed to one technology at a time, more-flexible thermal generation, low-cost bulk power storage, and price-responsive demand.

Green Driving in the Bay Area - California

In This Article:

- More Green cars on Bay Area's street's than ever & free EV charging @ SFO airport to help green driving adoption

This morning, I biked to work my usual route, and just for fun counted the number of hybrid and EV vehicles on the streets in East Bay in California. I was amazed to not only see the usual Prius suspects (total count =31), but also spotted two Chevi Volts. In addition what made my ride this morning really great was that during my 20 minute ride the number of pure electric vehicles (yes no gasoline engine whatsoever) is really growing now; I came across 3 Nissan Leaf's and one Tesla Roadster. 

Ok, agreed, the towns of Berkeley and Albany are predestined to become early adopters for green driving, but nonetheless to see people adopt to clearer driving in a larger scale is great to see. With Obama's increased tax credits for EV's (from $7500 up to $10,000), more car options, and falling vehicle costs it comes to no surprise that 2012 was quoted the first year where driving a hybrid car is viewed as something 'normal'. 

Green Vehicle Parking Station @ SFO Airport

Incidentally,  the San Francisco Intl' Airport SFO has recently engaged to become more green, by offering charging stations for EV and plug-in hybrid. And the best is - charging up your vehicle is free until the end of 2013. Here is a map to locate the stations (map). I think offering such infrastructure and cash incentives are great steps towards accelerating the adoption of clean driving.  

BLUEPRINT - An America Built to Last

In This Article:

- Obama's pitch about his future directions of the United States - his Achievements and Proposals

While Obama has already data points on successful implementations, there is still much to be done. But let's not forget that he actually provided care for people, did create jobs, and supports a green future fostering a technology competitive nation. More importantly, he criticizes and attacks those who have gambled beyond their means causing the recent financial crisis and is taking them to justice by founding a new agency. 

He cares for the people by establishing a new Consumer Protection Agency, something that in existence in European countries for many years. He also shows his fighter spirit and openly criticizes Congress in stating that the issue is not 'out there in the nation, but here in this room' called the U.S. Congress, and urges both parties to work more jointly together not against each other all the time. We remind ourselves that the original Congress was instituted under the premises that it should act and do what the American people can not do themselves. 

Here is a list of the achievements done and legislations proposed for the next years.

• Done
• #jobs went up (+3.2M within 22 months),
• #jobs in auto industry up by 160k
• Doubled exports since 2009
• Installed a Trade Enforcement Unit --> To counterfeit Trade Misconduct (China product dumping)
• Decreased illegal immigration (x2 # of border patrol agents since 04)
• Focused on small businesses (64% of all new jobs came from small businesses)
• Oil dependency at 20 year low (<50%)
• Natural Gas Exporter (since 2009 the US is becoming THE dominant NG player)
• Huge incentive & stimulus packages for renewable energies ($90B, $3B electricity storage via Recovery Act)
• US is second largest producer of renewable Wind energy (+40GW in 2010, trend rising)
• Bill to permit to use public land for clean energy production cites (to power 3 million homes)
• Wall-Street-Reform (reducing risk bets with customer deposits for big banks, simplifying credit card forms) --> Creation of the Consumer Protection Bureau
• Social Justice in health Care --> The Affordable Care Act (2.5M Americans under 26 years of age insured through their parents, Millions of seniors supported in prescription drug saving the $2B, uninsured people with pre-exciting conditions do have insurance options now)

• Proposed
• Reduce Corporate Taxes to in-source manufacturing & jobs
• Standardize job searches: 1 Program 1 Website 1 Path
• Focus on education, reduce drop-outs (Bill to refuse drop-out options)
• Attack student loan debt issue (Reinstate American Opportunity Tax Credit  keep interest rates low @ 3.4% and not 6.8%)
• Keep international MS & PhD in the country (27% and 57% of MS & PhD graduates are intl. students, 24% and 47% of U.S. scientists are immigrants)
• Eliminate tax breaks for Oil & Gas companies --> saving $40B over next decade
• Pay down debt & invest in national infrastructure from savings from winding down war costs in Iraq & Afghanistan
• Plan to save 3,000 bankrupted homeowners per year via refinancing their mortgages at today's low interest rates
• Lean unnecessary governmental procedures, fight corruption & provide equal measures (e.g. milk was classified as oil, requiring a milk producer to call an agency to clean up a milk spill)
• Establishing a financial crimes unit (to take law finance breakers to justice)
• Rescind tax breaks for the richest 1% (via the Buffett rule = 30% tax for gross income $+1M per year)
• Veteran support via tax credits (up to $5,600 and $9.600 with service connected disability)

Obama - Greener Than Ever

In This Article:

- Obama's recent Approach to American Energy Competitiveness and Security

Just one week ago, president Obama visited a manufacturing plant of  Daimler in Mt. Holley. Here he laid out what could be called blueprint for a new era of energy policy; namely a $1 billion National Community Deployment Challenge to spur deployment of clean, advanced vehicles and expansion of advanced vehicle tax credit. This stimulus package is geared towards strengthening the economy via new jobs and technology innovation, securing nations energy independence, which also enhances national security - a win win situation. 

Details about the proposed stimulus are for instance raised tax credits for electric and hybrid-electric vehicles (EV) from currently $7,500 to $10,000. Nicely so, these are now direcly transfarrable to the car dealer at the moment of purchase reducing the barrier-to-entry into the EV era. Positively surprising is the news that many other technologies will be supported not only EV's, that are currently not covered. Furthermore, technology researchers will joy since Obama also announced a research challenge ('EV everywhere') to invest in key technologies which target to make EV's as easy to use as gasoline cars. The time-target is the end of the decade. The vision is to get the EV sicker and operation price down so that the average american family can afford one, corresponding to a monthly saving to gasoline driving of $100 per month This aspect resonates with me strongly, since in the end it is the millions of people making up a society who have to adopt to this new way of living.

Most significant car efficiency standards in 3 decades

In addition the president announced a meaningful update to increase car and light truck efficiencies; by the year 2025 the car millage standard will be 54.4 miles per gallon saving $1.7T at the pump since 2011.  Furthermore heavy-duty trucks are under 'clean-attack' as well; the administration finalized the first standard addressing green-house-gas emission for these type of vehicles during a test period between 2014-2018, saving truck owners and companies an estimate of $50B in fuel costs. 

In the 'Race-to-the-top' challenge the president plans to catalyze the green vehicle adoption in 10-15 pilot communities. The idea is to reform the infrastructure, remove regulatory barriers and to create local incentives. The vision is to scale-up from these model communities towards reaching mass-scale. The plan envisions to give the communities the freedom to decide whether 'electrification', natural gas, or other alternative fuels are be the best choice for them. Furthermore, the program plans to support 5 regional liquid-natural-gas (LNG) corridors. LNG is becoming more and more interesting for the U.S. since recently huge amounts of national resources were found. This gas can be liquified during which the volume shrinks by a factor of 1000, making it easier to transport. 

In conclusion, it is an aggressive move but an innovative one. With many investment firms turning their heads towards renewable energies and technologies, the Obama administration seems to have realized that making surgical investments is a secure and fast way to move America's economy and society forward.      

Germany's Energy Revolution

In this Article:

- How Germany positions itself to to meet the Energy Challenge head-on

This world is changing, faster than ever. If every generation has it's smaller or larger 'revolution', it is the tremendous momentum behind a green future that we are in right now. Or in short: we are living an energy revolution!


But why now? First of all, many countries' electricity distribution grid is outdated and needs re-modernization . The costs for it? In the 10's of billions of dollars. Moreover, many countries dislike the notion of being dependent on some other country. And with an increasing energy demand this dependency is certainly not declining, if we are to continue with business-as-usual (BAU). Again, why now? Well, when pretty much one year ago a trembling earth-quake and an raging tsunami wasted large area of japan and multiple nuclear reactors  had melt-downs, the German policy leaders had enough. Almost overnight (in political timescales) Germany past what critics see as the 'largest decision since WWII', namely to abandon nuclear power bu the end of the decade (plus 2 years).  Noteworthy is also that this decision is founded on a broad consensus in German society with the German green-party tripping in size to becoming the 3rd largest party in the parliament.


However, the decision to abandon nuclear is just the tip of an long growing iceberg; from 1990 to 2010 Germany cut emissions of carbon dioxide by about 25 percent, while the economy grew at a constant rate. Interestingly, Germany has realized that cutting greenhouse gas emissions does not harm the economy - quite contrary in fact. Renewable energies are a driving force in the German industry, generating 37.5 billion Euros in turnover in 2010. The number of people employed in the renewable energy sector will go up to 500,000 by 2020 from today’s 367,000 people. And let me add that these jobs are highly trained, well-paid jobs, those who will pay decent taxes.

The CO2 emission reduction goals of Germany are also worth mentioning. Germany stays committed to its target of a 40 percent reduction of CO2 emissions by 2020. Note that these climate targets will remain unaffected by the accelerated nuclear phasing-out. In addition, the energy supply is secure during the transition to a carbon-free energy supply: even with eight reactors offline now, Germany is still a net exporter of electricity.

A major contribution to Germany’s successful energy policy is the "Feed-in Tariff" - an incentive structure to encourage the adoption of renewable energy. Utilities are obliged to buy electricity from renewable sources at a fixed price which is higher than the market price. Consumers pay the difference as part of their electricity bill (presently 3.5 ct per KWh).  80 percent of Germans consider it (although adding to the electricity price) appropriate or even too low.

However, the long-term vision and price guarantee are certainly key for investment decisions in the renewables sector. Germany's renewable energy generation has already reached 20% of its electricity production and is expected to become the dominant source by the middle of the century. Phasing out nuclear power will be achieved by significantly increasing the country's energy efficiency as well as through all renewable energies, especially wind energy. In short, this project means Germany may be the first large industrialized country to have a highly efficient energy supply system based on renewable energies. And  the German's are confident to do it as Chancellor Merkel pointed out: if anyone can demonstrate that this is possible, it is Germany.

In conclusion, it is a bold but forward thinking move what Germany is experimenting with. Nonetheless, the decision to greener go where not many have gone before is a signal to the world that change is possible for a smarter and cleaner planet. 

About the Future of Energy Policy

In This Article:

- Energy Challenges and Policy actions to strengthen Nation's  economical competitiveness 

Energy, concerns and strategies are on many peoples minds these days, and rightly so. I recently had the pleasure to see Steven Koonin's, former under Secretary for Science of the DOE, presentation about the use and future of energy from his perspective. In paving the way for future policies, technology developments and societal change, it is quite clear that three major targets for energy shall be met:

1. Energy - Security
2. Energy - Competitiveness
3. Energy - Environmental Impacts

The first one, Security, targets the independence of the U.S. from other countries' energy supply, like raw-oil from the middle east, or sand-oil from Canada for instance. So, do we not produce enough oil to satisfy our demand? Answer no (see Fig. 1). As we can see about one quarter of our energy demand is imported, corresponding to $1B every day leaving the country. The second target, competitiveness, addresses efficiency improvements leading to economical stability and leadership, and ensures our competitive edge in the future. Lastly, we aim to achieve these by keeping an eye on the environmental impacts such that our grandkids can enjoy this planet as well. 

Fig. 1 | Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration,
Annual Energy Review 2010, Table 1.1 (October 2010)

The big-picture goal with these three sectors is to gain Energy Independence. Why? Because  Energy independence means Price independence, thus economical and ultimate political freedom and flexibility. 

From history we can often learn a lot. Taking a look at Nation's changing Energy portfolio over time, we see that it typically takes tens of years for a new energy source to have an meaningful impact (Fig.2). This also means  that if we want to changintroiduce changes, we should start early. Interestingly, if we break down the energy demand into the two sectors Transportation and Stationary  we find that the majority (67%) are Stationary energy uses such as in buildings and industry. 

Fig. 2 | U.S. Energy source use over time showing a
rate of change of tens of years. Thus, if new and
clean energy sources are to be introduced, we must
start now since the lead time might be 30+ years.  

Steven Chu, DOE's Secretary for Energy, said: "We are at a crossroad". One direction is to walk the 'green' energy path, the other would business-as-usual. Bringing these two choices into global context is is obvious that many nations (Europe probably being the leader) are heavily investing into clean technologies. The question is, will the U.S. use its innovation competitiveness to it's advantage to met the energy challenge head-on or not? Since clean technologies also mean high efficiency, new jobs, higher standard of living, a sustainable future, it is clear that we must lead the development of clean energy. The goal is to ensure that policies that guide this process ensure an impactful and efficient economical future. So, the question is how should the government, in particular the DOE, choose among the many technical possible activities?

To this end the Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR) were introduced, with the main focus on accelerating transformational change of Nations energy systems to meet the challenges of energy demand. Furthermore the QTR optimize the DOE's activities and lay out feasible roadmaps, discuss inter organizational  processes towards improving Nations long term effectiveness. The QTR not only limits it's  discussion to the governmental agencies, but actively joins forces with the private sector. This makes a lot of sense, since the latter holds most of the utilities and expertise on the technical implementations of potential future energy portfolios. Most interestingly the QTR asks for the citizens' input on guiding these discussions, by encouraging to submit opinions. This public engagement was part of the Obama Administration's committeemen to an 'Open Government'. I strongly welcome such political crowed sourcing since it helps citizens to become active and engaged in the policy process - hence it's a way to make people care, which will reduce the reluctance of supporting the country through rightful taxes.    

  

What were the results or findings of these QTR discussions? The report mentions six key strategies to focus on towards strengthening nations competitiveness and protect the climate at the same time. These six factors are:

1. Increasing Vehicle Efficiency
2. Electric Vehicles
3. Alternative carbon-hydro fuels (aka. alternatives to classical gasoline)
4. Increasing Building Efficiency
5. Modernizing the Grid
6. Deploy Clean Electricity

I believe these technological sectors are good choices towards meeting the energy challenge. However, new technologies can only get us so far. Another, often overlooked, significant factor towards driving change (energy source change), is to look at societal pulling factors. Thus, questions about energy perception, awareness, acceptance and adoption, trust, risks, , and regulatory influences are areas we typically ignore in the energy discussion. For instance not much efforts have been placed on economics modeling that attempt to include behavioral factors of society, such as best practices for incentives.  

In conclusion, it would be interesting to fuse the research fields of sociology with economics, public policy and engineering to lower thinking barriers and view this energy challenge holistically towards creating a strong economical future with green solutions leading the way. 

The Energy Challenge - Experience & Analysis

In This Article:

- Two Looks into the Energy Future: ex-DOE Under Secretary & Google.org

Raymond L. Orbach, the director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas is not an unknown figure in the field of Energy and Public Policy. Spending 40 years in research and administrative fields at the University of California system made him an ideal candidate to take on the in 2005 newly established position of Under Secretary of the DOE department of Science.


Analyzing the finalized budget, it is obvious that the Congress' support for R&D is sustained and did not suffer the feared strong cuts, so far the good news. Mr. Orbach was asked whether he sees the long-term goal of sustainable energy security conflicting with the more near-to-mid term challenges of a weak economy and national security. Interestingly, he does not see a conflict at all between these two goals and argues that we should use our technology R&D to 'green' fossil energies. 

This argument seems rather 'retro' in spirit   and would buy us some time at best. I think that delaying pure low-to-zero emission technologies will (i) slow down R&D efforts and SBIR momentum built up by the DOE, and (ii) not to help enable a 'green' industry and public awareness. In fact a recent Google.org study found that "Delaying Innovation = Delaying Benefits" (see left Figure). The full report can be freely downloaded here. The Google.org team's analysis found that if a clean energy breakthrough scenario would be delayed by only 5 years the accumulated economical loss from now until 2050 would be about $2.3-3.2 Trillion in unrealized GDP gains, which is an equivalent to about 1.3 million net jobs lost. Moreover, it would put 8-28 unnecessary gigatons of avoidable greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere. Going back to Mr. Orbach, one wonders how exactly he wants to avoid  the GHG emissions from the combustion of tar oil from Canadian sand, which he speaks so highly of?
    

The figure on the left summarizes the  Google.org team's findings painting a sunny outlook if energy innovation shall come through. In such a scenario the jobs will be created, the GDP raised, GHG emission spared, and energy security increased - all at the same time. 


Regarding PV Mr. Orbach and Google's report see a similar future; that is the  large-scale installation of PV at a cost effective way. Towards this aim the teaming of DOE's support (especially the Sun Shot and Sun Shot Incubator programs) and Google's close to $1 Billion dollar investments, many of which for PV, are good indicators that this goal can be reached.


However, the Ex-Legislator and Google's analysis seem to disagree on what technology can be defined as 'Clean Power' in the first place. While Orbach argues that radiation damage and gas storage should be improved alongside renewables the Mountain View company strictly considers PV, concentrated solar, wind, geothermal and retrofit carbon capture & sequestration (CSS) in their 'Clean Power Breakthrough' scenario.

Aligned are both parties again when it comes to implementations of future green power. Here Orbach sees that "good policy must be based on good science", and Google's analysis showed a clear correlation between the number of created jobs and GDP raise if  incentivizing policy legislations were added to the future scenario (see left Figure). 

In conclusion, it is foreseeable, that the global energy appetite is climbing and that we must address it. So, lets's be 'smart' and quick in the way we implement this energy revolution.