Wednesday, November 30, 2011

What's Your Ecological Footprint?

In This Article:
- Accelerating trends in population growth and energy demand create a small planet
- Game up your footprint     



   


Want to know your ecological footprint?  -  Then Click here. Even though I, bike to work every day, buy local food and refrain from meat, it requires about 4 earths if everyone would live like me - so there is lot's of room for improvement.  

The link above connects to the organization "Footprint Network" which created a neat online tool/game to estimate how many worlds it would need, if every human on the planet would like you. Take a look, it is actually quite entertaining and well made. 

Did you know that since WWII our population has more than doubled?! An risen more than 1000 times since the last ice age 20k years ago, which is just a second ago compare to how long life exists on planet earth. In addition, we are consuming about 10x the amount of energy than we used to just 100 years ago. Ever more and more people needing more and more every ... sounds like a runaway scenario, does it?

Seeing our planet shrink
  
Is this a problem? Most likely yes, because if we take more than what the environment supplies us with, we are depleting our natural assets over time. So, how come we don't see this? Firstly, the feedback time from the ecosystem 'earth' has a rather slow response time. Thus, if we mess up something now, it takes tens to hundreds of years to show it's effect. The down side is, once the snowball got into motion, it's had to stop. 

Secondly, there are plenty of indicators of abnormalities and trends, such as global rising temperatures leading to polar ice melting and hence rising ocean levels. Or try the atmospheric CO2 levels which jumped to record highs over the last 200 years (=> industrial revolution!). 

The solution?

Consume less, invent new materials and technologies to reduce our footprint, help with policy regulatories and most importantly use your brain! Yes, just simply think about the effects of your doing, such as the 2nd order effects I highlighted in my article below. Ask yourself: 

  • Do I really need to do this trip to get ... say a bag of milk which I need to bake the cake?
  • Could I do without the cake? If not, could I borrow just a bit of milk from my neighbor (=> yes, train those rusty social skills a bit)?
  • Could I get the milk tomorrow, instead of today? 
  • Could I even carpool with someone? (=> watch out, you might have a good conversation while doing it ;-))
  • Do I need to go by car at all? Could I maybe take my old bike? (=> which would get me even in better shape and would reduce my long-term medical bill) 

What seems like common sense, gets oftentimes thrown overboard when we only see our goal and the immediate actions in getting there. Ever head the term "tunnel vision"...?! :-) 



Tuesday, November 29, 2011

What have the current Financial Debt Crisis and Sustainability in common?

In This Article:
- How we can measure our Ecological Footprints
- Why we should NOT spend more than our natural bank-statement allows  



   
If you don't have a TV, like me then you might use Netflix to satisfy your desire for motion pictures. The  documentary "The Ecological Footprint: Accounting for a Small Planet", I recently saw uses an interesting approach towards Sustainability, which is the key word for this blog.
  
Interestingly, Sustainability and Ecology are topics which are pretty big on the higher-education wish list for many university and college in the country this year, so we know this sustainability thing must be important somehow. But how and why? The immediate answer would be - because there is something to have try knowledge, interested students, innovative technology and engineering, and maybe even a business model. And this is were the documentary comes in. In a nutshell the idea is to use accounting or business tools to quantify the ecological footprint of our world, nations, or even you and me. So, basically what they did is, to make a balance sheet with contrasting Ecological Demand on the one side and Ecological Supply on the other. 

Being a  Ecological Creditor 

Here they compared the areas needed to supply us humans with whatever we want and need, such as for growing crops, grazing animals, harvesting fish, settlements, timber areas to absorbing CO2. The result? Well, starting with the US, the area needed to supply every american (on average) to live like we do is about 9.5 football fields. So how much football fields are there per person in the US? About 4.9. Thus, on average we are living twice in excess to what we should, giving our national resources. 



And this is where the financial part comes in. Basically this "ecological footprint" can be compared to a bank account. Say, if you spend more money than you have in your bank account what happens? Well, first of all probably nothing much, because you use all your credit cards and borrow yourself some $$$. Over time however, you will get into some serious trouble, not only financially. It is a no-brainer that such a debt-heavy lifestyle is financially and ecologically not sustainable. So, the punchline is, if we spend more of natures' assets than there are available on our 'bank statements', we are sooner or later will have a problem - it's that simple. Within this context it is interesting to notice how not only modest living Mr. Smith got into financial trouble, but also large banks and even entire countries. Funny, how studied and extremely knowledgeable people are able to run-down our assets with such 'success'.        


Here's another analogy: imagine you are in a sailboat in the pacific ocean. You prepared for this journey, so you packed food, water etc. Out here in the open waters cut-off from any more supply you very quickly think about the amount of supply you have an start to value what you have.   

So, let me ask you:
What would you change to take less from nature? 





Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Why Smart Technologies Aren't Enough


 In This Article:
How raised awareness and understanding of cause-&-effects can lead to smarter decision making and an improved quality of life





Within the last few years, there is a growing talk and real technological innovation about improving the quality of life on this planet via novel technologies. And with no doubt this is a great way forward. For instance consider developments in the zero-net house; here your home and castle does actually not need to bring in energy from a  power plant in order to provide you with cozy warmth and a hot dinner. Or consider the killer-combo: a zero-net house, powered by rooftop heat exchangers and/or solar-cells, which at the same time re-charge your electric vehicle, so that you don't have to burn fossil fuels in order to move yourself around. On top of that, you might even make some $$$ alongside, by feeding excessive electricity from your solar-cell system back into the grid. While some forward thinking individuals do live such net-zero dreams, it is about the rest of us and what we can do towards a creating a smarter planet that I want to talk about in this post. 
     
After all - it's about choice, or is it? 
   
I give the punch line away upfront; in order to make a smarter planet, you and me should make more active usage of our brain power towards 'smart' decision making in every day life. The key word here is 'decision making' and thus choice. We humans choose to do something when we are motivated to do so. However, there exist two different kinds of motivations, namely intrinsic and extrinsic ones. Example: When you pay your taxes, you don't really see the impact of your money, nor do you get an sincerer "thank-you" from the IRA. This is a problem for humans, because even though we know we should give that money to the government such that it can provide for save roads, schools and education for us and our kids etc., we don't feel our contribution. This is an example of extrinsic motivation. Now, consider this scenario: you donate some amount of your wealth to support a good cause. You do this because you simply feel good about doing it, hence you are intrinsically motivated.

So, the question is what motivates us humans to do something? Before we go there, let's take a look into what 'motivates' an and animal, say an insect in their life. With its limited brain power the bug basically see's three motivations: sex, food, and doing-all-that-with-the-least-amount-of-energy spend. In order to execute these at times complex tasks its brain is 'pre-wired' or 'pre-programed' to do that, and only that. While being pre-programed is great, since the bug 'knows' the first moment it comes to life, what it should do, being pre-wired is   at the same time a curse, because such pre-wired connections can not be un-wired, nor can new connections be established (or only to a minuscule amount). In this sense humans are entirely different and hence can have different motivations in life, or so it seems. Starting with infants, a human baby is probably the most helpless being on this planet - left alone for just a few days it will certainly die and it will take it more than 365 days to learn how to walk. This is unlike most animals, who can walk and even run the first day they are born. However, such un-pre-wired human has now the opportunity to learn and thus wire our CPU in a unique way, every day again and again.   

Wiring our CPU - the task of life

So how do humans learn and thus wire our processor? It's called cause & effect plus repetition. Example-1: if I step on your toe and it breaks you know what was the cause for it (and you might avoid standing next to me the next time). Example-2: if, however, say your cat or dog (assume mid-sized dog) steps on your food applying about 10 lbs and your toe breaks, you are quite puzzled - unless you had taken into account that your toe actually had osteoporosis. While example-1 highlights a first order effect, example-2 is of second order and hence much more difficult to detect and hence learn from. Here, however lies the crux in human behavior; we often only see (or want to see) first order results that my action could cause and do not consider those of higher orders. Consider this little example. Assume you ride your bike on a narrow road and there is a car behind you. The only thing the car driver has in mind (maybe he is in a rush), is to take over that for him painfully slow bicyclist. Finally the oncoming traffic is cleared and he takes his chance rushing past you only to realize seconds later that in 150 yards the red traffic light is spoiling his eagerness to press on. So, why didn't the driver noticed the already red-shining lights BEFORE rushing forward? Well, he was not being aware of his 2nd-order effect once he had gained his 1st order one overtaking the biker, something we should start doing on an every-day basis.

This example for the rushy car drive overtaking the biker can also be analysed from an energetic/environmental point of view. Rushing past the biker requires the car to be accelerated requiring significant more energy than driving it at a constant speed. Then the fast car had to break for the traffic light and all that kinetic energy is wasted into heating up the break pads. There are two lessons learned here; (a) all that wasted energy could have been saved and (b) that unnecessary acceleration produced extra exhaust fumes inhaled by the biker and others adding to decreasing their health condition, from whose the car driver is unaffected. 



Reducing carbon and externality footprints    

Interestingly, economists created a term for such negative action of producing disadvantages for others and called it "externalities". Let me give you another example to illustrate this: consider two people - Alice living near a power plant and Bob in a desert. Bob is lucky and doesn't have to sweat in his house, because he can turn on his AC. The power required to run his AC comes in form of 'clean' electricity produced by a coal-burning power plant far away where Alice happens to live. Who do you think is more likely to develop cancer, Alice or Bob? Correct, and that's why Alice is experiencing Bob's externality. So, think about where have you created externalities for someone else? Could or can you avoid it next time?

Raising the awareness in our everyday life for our environment and fellow humans by thinking one step further than the immediate first order goal & effect caused by my actions would create a tremendously constructive ecological as well as sociological impact. Such a sociological negative externality (i.e. something positive) could for instance lead to reduced health care costs, non-renewable resources saved etc., all of which are topics of highest priority to U.S.'s policy makers and should be to you and me as well. Furthermore, it could be argued that such improved awareness would have a much greater and immediate impact on us and our environment than the external-motivating emerging smart technologies we are (luckily!) seeing today - hence the title of this post. 

So, what's the first step into that direction? Becoming aware of myself, my actions and my sourroundings. Given that, I can now act and change my behavior (re-wire new connections of my CPU and un-wire 'bad' onesaccordingly such that I minimize my externalities and seed social integrity among humans a better world.  

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Predicting the Future

In This Article:
How data analysis helps creating a better and smarter planet. 
  






On some fantasy worlds  some magicians can predict the future. In "Lord of the Rings" for instance some elvish elders posses this capability. Interestingly, in a sense, predicting the future is what physicists dream of; finding the world formula! 

A world formula is mathematical description of all the physical forces in the universe combined in one equation. Assuming we had such a tool, we still needed to know the so called "boundary conditions" of every particle, from Galaxies and planets down to molecules and individual atoms, meaning their position, size, velocity, energy etc. In other words we needed to have a lot of data about everything. An this is the catch phrase for this blog - data.

Data availability - the new commodity
    
Now, let's take look what what the data-situation nowadays is like. So, the internet traffic is growing with about 50% every year (CAGR), that is significantly faster than the all-so-fast-growing-doubling-of-transistors-on-a-Intel-chip aka. "Moore's Law". Now, the internet growth is certainly not the only data-growth engine, but with the trend of cloud-computing, all data is virtually going over the net and not just sitting in local data-servers. Or try this - as of 2011 there are 2 Billion people on the internet, 4 Billion mobile subscribers and more than 1 Trillion that is 1,000,000,000,000 electronic devices like the smart phones connected to the world wide web creating and sharing massive amounts of data. That with so much data, there could be an energy and power issue related to such data traffic is foreseeable, but let's leave that for another post. 

Now, why does the data rate grow so fast? Well, there are many reasons - try social networking, smart phones, sensors for environmental and social surveillance etc. With so much data at hand we can think about using it for a smarter and better planet. How? Let me give you an example from a talk I recently heard given by Bernie Meyerson the IBM VP for Innovation (you can watch the talk here for free). He starts off with the the key word transportation WRT urbanization. Since of 2010 more humans lived in cities than in rural areas - trend fast growing. Thus, challenges like food, water, health-care and transportation for these becoming mega-cities are growing. Per exemplum, let's take a look into car traffic and the resulting traffic jams, and what smart data mining can do to solve it. 

Analytics to save the day

Singapore is a suitable example for such traffic issues. However Singapore was lucky enough to have an  traffic monitoring system installed, where the car density can be tracked in real-time. Knowing the traffic in real-time is not good enough Meyerson says, since what is it worth to know that there is a traffic jam now (my real time GPS tells me that) if I'm stuck in it - well guess what, I can see the car in front of my bumper very well. So, IBM goes a step further and shows how analyzing such traffic data can be used to predict the traffic density and location of traffic 'hot-spots' for the next 20 or 30 minutes.

But this is not enough: Now, they deploy an mathematical algorithm to the taken data towards extracting valuable information. Thus, not only can we predict the future now, we can utilize these results to change the future of a system (e.g. car traffic) in such a positive way, such that the traffic jam does not even occur! How? For instance, by installing a traffic lighting system, that slows cars at specific locations down such that the critical car-density creating a jam does not occur. In more general words: We are foreseeing and changing the future! ...well at least for 30 minutes and for cars. And it can be easily envisioned how such proper data analysis can be deployed in other topics of global significance such as Health Care, Transportation, Energy, Education, Security etc. 

Want an example for security? Imagine we mark burglary crimes in a city on that cities map. What evolves is a, more or less, complex pattern of such crime acts. Analyzing these occurrences with an smart algorithm allows to predicted  the next crimes place, and potentially time such that preventative measures can be taken. A successful demonstration of this novel tool was implemented in a city scoring within the top 10 crime burdened cities in the US, which dropped to place 200 and recently off that list after running the pilot project - what a better world it must be for those city's citizens.
    

Friday, November 18, 2011

??? Did you know ...


  • ... that in 2010 more people lived in cities than in rural areas for the first time of mankind? Trend accelerating!
  • ... that the estimated costs associated with premature deaths linked to air pollution and vehicle emissions in US's nations largest (top 83) U.S. cities is about $18 billions per year?
  • ... that manufacturing a single electrical transistor (the thing that comprises the core of your computers CPU) is cheaper than printing a letter in the Financial Times?
  • ... that we are pumping out 15 times more water from the ground than is supplied from rain?
  • ... that we could feed an additional 1 Billion people of this planet with the food the US & UK through away every year?
  • ... that the wealth of the 3 richest Americans is about equal to the accumulated GDP of the world's poorest 48 Nations?
  • ... that using with data analysis we can predict the future?
  • ... that animal protein, as found for instance in milk, increases the cancer rate of humans?
Epilog  Observing some of these trends appeals to engaging in thinking about our future, our resources, our investments, our personal behaviors and even to our desires and wishes. This world is a connected place, not only since Wifi and Facebook, thus it would be smart to plan, invest, act accordingly.       

    Welcome!

    Welcome   to a blog about you and me.  
    • About sharing thoughts of Global Significance
    • About how Smart Technologies can help mankind.
    • About bringing back the Civil into Civilization.
    • About Shaping our Future
    My name is Dr. Volker J. Sorger and  I'm looking forward to interesting thought-sharing about creating a smarter planet.